2012-12-01
2012-12-31
x jim

STATION
CNBC 25
CSPAN2 2
CNNW 1
CSPAN 1
WBAL (NBC) 1
LANGUAGE
English 32

Set Clip Length:


. as for the action in europe, really, the action focuses on italy where there's an impending political regime change. more on that in just a moment. the road map starts at the golden arches. mcdonald's blowing out expectations for november sales after the dismal drop in the month of october. hoping to fuel the rise, the bacon/onion/cheddar sandwich. >> there's one thing for certain, taxes on top earners are going up. >> turmoil in italy. berlusconi throws his hat in the ring. retail sales numbers out of china, hoping the economy is in fact on an upswing. >> apple, enthusiasm. jeffreys trimming its price target to 800 from 900, as apple shares do trade lower in the pre-market. we'll start with mcdonald's, posting better than expected november same-store sales, global comps up 2.4. u.s. same-store sales up 2.5, offered by breakfast offerings, including that cheddar/bacon/onion sandwich, as melissa mentioned. jim? people are saying the u.s. maybe is making a turn here. >> i find mcdonald's is levered to new products, levered to menu technology. they do invent things. my hat's off to janet. they had thi

the road, which is rich coming from a european. >>> european trading the lower this morning. italy's prime minister mario monti, yes, the same one that is famous from all the anti-trust things back in the -- was that the '90s? >> the '90s, yeah. >> monti announcing he'll step down before his term ends. the decision comes after the party of sylvia berlusconi withdrew support for monti's government last week. berlusconi has indicated he will run for leadership again. cnbc's carolin roth will join us from italy with the latest in a few minutes. when i was over there, i had to have the -- all the political signs translated because there's a picture of monti sitting under a beach chair drinking a drink and all the text was send monti to the beach. they already didn't like him. >> he had very high disapproval ratings. i remember last summer i had seen that somewhere. >> they want to send him to the beach. the major european averages at this hour, there they, they're all down. not great in france, but germany down about .7% and the ftse down fractionally. other news out of europe, debt tieback fo

roughly speaking in the likes of italy and france and actually grew for germany. then in q4, it seems that there is a greater degree of destocking i think, materializing. i think that is going to lead to some weakness on the industrial production side and it does appear that the austerity is very much perceived by household and by service sector companies. and that explains this relatively soft data. it's a sign that really we are still in a period of multi-year major fiscal entrenchment and at the same time, we have a very cautious perspective towards taking on debt. both by the suppliers and the demanders of that debt. >> julian, very briefly, will we see more qe? will we see any more next year or not? >> well, it will depend, i think, on how things develop. on our baseline forecast, the answer to that would be no because we are looking for recovery coming through really reasonably significantly from the first quarter of next year with .4% quarter on quarter. >> julian, thanks for that. always good to see you. julian kelly joining us from barclays. which country is more corrupt and

's happening with italian politics. of course, mario monti saying he was going to resign as italy's prime minister. that paves the way for flesh elections to be called in the beginning of next year. yesterday, we saw the negative reaction. sylvia berlusconi wants to make his return on the political scene. today, we saw a bounce back. if you can see see bind me, the bank stocks in italy rerebound, but it's only in the range of .5% to 1% of these names which were down in some cases nearly 10% yesterday. if you take a quick look at european bourses, if that's possible, down near the ftse mib, this is the one selling off somewhere in the range of 3.5% yesterday. today it's adding about .8%. in spain, showing a nice rebound. same attitude listing peripheral debt. we can take a look there. italy and spain seeing prices rise, yields falling to 4.75% and 5.75% respectively. is investor attention returning to spain? here is the thing. italy is the third biggest government debt market in the world. it's the third biggest economy in the eurozone. whatever happens with its political situation could p

was supposed to come to market. italy, oh, my, what happens when italy -- it turns out you had to take it down. i know that john corzine, very controversial figure. that's a code word. but what a trade they almost had. in the news again today. >> almost. >> horseshoes, hand grenades. >> we should point out, gm was certainly not having the easiest of times of it. this morning's stock is up sharply, we're telling you why. the company will buy back at a premium to at least what was the market price as of yesterday, 200 million shares from the government at $27.50. that having the effect of sending the stock above that. why not, if you're gm, you've got all this cash sitting on your balance sheet. you're earning virtually nothing on it, why not take the opportunity, even at a premium, to buy it back by as much as 11%, shrinking the cap by that much. we heard from tim massad who runs t.a.r.p., they'll be dribbling out the shares over time. the next 12 to 15 months. similar to the strategy employed with citi. a bit of it coming out. and finally they cleaned it up with a few big blocks. >> that was v

should let, and italy has more forward in an expedited fashion open to a private contractor who is now providing competing service to the public sector in italy so we can look at some things that may not be successful in other countries and tried to pick the very best options. let me yield mel. >> thank you. i can only take my colleagues at his word. when we went to the central valley, one of the robot has been the lack of knowing the details. the conversation you just went through with mr. lahood, how could we expect to get an update on who these private companies are that are able to invest that come much are they willing to invest that i have heard him say the same concern for over a year now. when do you anticipate the governor would work with you to present a package of how we might be able to get the private investment? >> i'm not going to speak for the governor. this has not been determined. companies that want to invest. >> can you also expressed to the governor on half of this committee that he would give some of state whether he wants to do it through closed sessions are give

. >> the original [ inaudible ] in italy, the corporatist party. >> correct. correct. >> stephanie: exactly. oh by the way, greg writes about reince preibus, gym! >> reinholt reince prebus! [ dog barking ] >> i never thought we would use that sound bite. >> stephanie: they want more debates next time because it makes their candidates look really bad -- >> because we look bad when people here about our ideas. >> stephanie: greg says for jim, now know who else wanted less debates? >> hitler. [ bell chimes ] [ applause ] >> stephanie: hitler. greg you don't need to set jim up. joe in lockport hi joe. >> caller: hi steph. >> stephanie: hi. >> caller: this call is for jacki though. >> oh jacki it's for you! >> stephanie: phone! >> coming! what is up? >> caller: would the premium be for medicare if we all paid it out of our pocket? >> it would be much higher than what you pay now because medicare is regulated in a way that the private insurance market isn't regulated. so it's a percentage of what the private insurance market pays. people complain that medicare rates for doctors, for

with italy up by about .2 of 1%. >> we'll do our best to keep focused on the business day. we'll be following the tragic shooting in connecticut, of course. the new york stock exchange will hold a moment of silence to honor the victims in the next few moments, and we'll be looking at the president's call for meaningful action and the politics of gun control. >> let's get to a road map for this morning. it starts with apple. under pressure once again. even dipping below $500 a share at some point this morning. shares will remain range bound near term. iphone 5 sales and cannibalization among the region. >> other concessions from the gop, the speaker proposing tax hikes for millionaires. could this be the tipping point. moving the talks beyond deadlock. >> a big week for earnings. yes, earnings. fedex, research in motion among the companies reporting. so finally maybe we'll be talking about fundamentals in the stock market more than just the cliff. we've got to talk about apple reversing its move lower this morning, sold more than 2 million iphone 5s in china. the best debut for any iphone in t

back as we're talking, rallied back quite a bit in the ten-year bond futures in italy but you know what, politics aside, mario draghi bought himself and europe some time. i don't know what they'll do with it, it will be 2013's story. >> you nailed it, to me every strategy since the crisis hit in this country in my opinion you could call it kick the can but it's about we have no idea what the effects are going to be, what the exit will be or if any of this is going to work but trying to buy time for something to happen. that something has to be growth and i still don't see how europe has a plan for more growth. >> we know greece is done with because they've already restructured their debt and what they did in the last two weeks, which the germans said they should do, they should have done three years ago they'd be better off. spain is the immediate problem, you have 26% unemployment which is non-performing loans. >> we have to go, 2,200 pages of health care, i'm sure the notes spain's taken how greece has got money at every turn, their pile is a bigger pile than the health care plan. >>

. >> the european markets are closing now. >> remember yesterday and all that concern we had about where italy might go with the resignation of mario monti. greece is higher. por sh gal is higher. spain is higher. it's a good day for -- investor sentiment.strongly it was revealed today. optimism over what the fed is going to do in the united states tomorrow. optimism there will be a deal on the fiscal cliff. you have optimism that the recapitalization of the banks is going to be delayed by another year according to the bank of italy. and you have optimism as well on mar of election promises as we now face the pros wekt of a much earlier election in italy. to that end it is fascinating. sylvia berlusconi has come out today warning about the germano center of politics. in other words, too much of a focus on what is happening from germany and the austerity inspired by angela merkel. in particular, he is drawing attention to this. which is the spread of the extra that investors demand to hold italian bonds over german bonds. i've shown this to you a couple times. over the last year it's been a mainstay

of comments about what happens happening in europe and the need to liberalize the taxi systems in italy and so forth. are you comfortable with the system you have now in new york? i understand the medallion changes hands for $800,000. so you have a few people who control a lot of these licenses. who are creaming off most of the profits. then you have often first generation immigrants who are tearing around on the street 12-hour days trying to make a living? is that fair? >> medallion now trades for $1 million. so i think that does prove your point in a sense. look, we are -- the biggest issue in new york city is outside the core service area in midtown, downtown manhattan. mayor bloomberg has gotten legislation out to let us create a whole separate class of taxis that will operate in the boroughs. we do need more cabs. that $1 million price -- >> did it get approved? >> the governor signed it, the taxi owners, they have a lot at stake. they've sued and it's in court now. we're going to get a final decision by may or june. i'm sure we're going to win and put the new meltions on the street. >> d

that italy and greece would be following in disaster. of course, they subsequently turned out to be the single best places to invest for fixed income in the world. not only did the sky not fall, but you had to do some serious buying to keep up with the others around the world. we have been buying an etf for my travel trust. was there a more uniform agreement than the idea that the euro had to die and the weaker countries were going into a fre depression? we know a ton of countries that could do very well in a low-growth environment. a year ago all the wise guys were telling us to avoid china because it was a house of cards. the course only grew more uniform with the chinese market falling to multiyear lows. but in the last few weeks, china's economy bottomed during the summer as they were focused way too much on beating inflation. now it's become the best performer in the world, and i don't think you've missed the move which is why my trust has been buying an etf that mimics china. finally there's apple. we've become addicted to apple. we are deeply focused on its decline whic

? we believe that every time italy and spain would have to raise money, do those deals, interest rates would shoot through the roof, bankrupting all involved, sovereign countries, companies, banks. instead, by letting cooler heads prevail through can kicking, smart private sector investors kicked the tires, not the cans, and they bought the debt. hit home runs every time they did. as rates came down hard, courtesy of bank backstop that did work. the europeans realized if they stopped the can kicking game cold like so many investors claimed they had to do, well, europe would go into severe depression. they didn't want that kind of austerity, their leaders bought time by kicking the can and that's what was most needed, time. they bought time. how well did it work? considering rates are not only not dramatically higher, they're dramatically lower, and the euro right now, strongest currency in the world. hmm, i thought the euro was supposed to vanish by this time with the secret sellers around the country. i thought greece was supposed to be kicked out of the union. instead, my advice, do

doesn't have enough bonds to make a difference is about .5%. portugal at 7 and italy at 4.5. the point is that whether or not you or s&p or anybody else downgrades the united states is there a danger that it becomes substantially more expensive for the u.s. to borrow money any time in the future? >>. >> a lot of the borrowing costs have been masked by the purchases by the federal reserve bank, they purchase about 75% of what the treasury has issued over the past year. the bigger challenge for a lot of institutional investors with regard to the credit quality of the u.s. is entitlement reform. the unfunded liabilities are in the area of $100 trillion. depending on what type of interest rate or discount rate you use for the future liabilities. >> that's something that we have some time to address. more important than the immediate deficit reduction for a lot of institutional investors, including ourselves. >> i'm going to take it over to jim for a second. jim your firm manages money for individual and institutional investors. what have they been doing ahead of the fiscal cliff. >> good l

or italy that the comes back with a vengeance and the s&p gets bashed down by a torrent of selling. that's why it's so important to prepare yourself and your stocks for the next catastrophe around the corner. expected or unexpected, so that you can make money in any market, or at least lose less and not just when things are going smoothly. you have to build this stuff into what i call your world view. you have to assume that somewhere, sometime, something will go wrong. i'm not saying you should be a super skeptic perma-bear, not at all. over the course of my 31-plus years in this business i've seen the averages climb way too way, watched the market make people way too much money to ever be that cynical and close-minded. being negative all the time has not historically been a lucrative strategy, and i don't see any reason why that should change now. there are a handful of incredibly smart, professional short sellers, hats off, able to turn pessimism into profits but i don't recommend trying to follow in their footsteps at home. i never recommend short selling on this show because it's in

in a wheelchair. on april 14, 1969, the same date he was injured in the hills of italy 24 years earlier, he made his maiden speech on the topic of americans with disabilities. in every legislative initiative since then, bob dole has been a leader on behalf of people with disabilities. bills like the rehabilitation act of 1973, the individuals with disabilities education act, idea, the developmental disabilities act and the americans with disabilities act. he was responsible for including people with disabilities in the telecommunications act of 1996, and for ensuring that people with disabilities are part of the state department's annual report on human rights around the world. after leaving this chamber, bob dole prompted the congress to pass the ticket to work and work incentives act of 1999, breakthrough legislation on health care and employment for people with disabilities. this past year, he has been instrumental in working with the administration and congress to ensure bipartisan support for the convention on the rights of persons with disabilities to reflect american leadership and values

country fully fully, over in italy, and losing an arm, such a hero, storming several german machine gunner nests, and so brave because he was an american, he was fighting for his country. some may have mentioned or some might in the future mention danny's statement to many of us that went to a prayer breakfast a few months ago. dan didn't ever go to any prayer breakfasts. but he went to one and he wanted to explain why he did something. and it was one of the more touching moments in my memory here is when danny went through a bit of his life, explaining how he was in hawaii, in a foster home, orphanage, something similar to that and a bishop would come by monthly with each of the young children and say what can i do for you, young lady, young man and deap right away said i want a home. he explained how he went to live in the bishop's home raised by nuns and that went a long way to help danny appreciate and understand decency, working together in community, and it metropolitan a lot to him. and later then pearl harbor and he wanted to sign up and serve. but when he explained all this to us,

minister of italy, he comes out with a package two thirds tax hikes, one third tax cuts. and i remember saying do you think this will work, they're raising the v.a.t. tax and i understand italian household debt isn't that high, but they were trying to tax their way out of a massive debt problem and in fact receipts went down, consumption fell to 4.25 annualized rate and the situation got much worse. today italy has zero nominal gdp grets. and they're funding at 4.5%. that is a bad business model. spain same story. so when you bnk our package and what's been offered so are far which appears like $1.6 trillion in tax hikes against $400 billion of entitlement cuts over time, that's an even worse mix than the two-thirds/one-third european structure that really has gotten a negative reaction. >> how much is because of the mix and how much of it just this is what austerity looks like? >> is the money in capping deductions or raising marginal tax rates? it's in capping deductions. but that's tough because you have to tell someone no like the housing lobby or charitable contributions. >> cappin

much better. you throw up the bund. many areas whether you talk italy or indeed greece, rates are moving down. that isn't a bad thing for funding but it does ehave peopl look at spain saying they'll do bank bailout, old program, not country bailout new program. the correction was small. goldman says stocks are the place to be. kind of making this trade a little more true than it was on its knee jerk. if you look at putting it together. you can see we're up several basis points. still not huge. if you open it up to a one-month chart, you can see that 160 remains the pivot. it's still about europe. don't despair. i'm sure the red herring of bashing tax policy in the u.s. will get to the front page before the end of the session. >> thank you very much. let's check out latest news in energy and medals with sharon epperson. >> it's the euro that we see in euro dollar helping commodities and risk on trade across the board in the sector. the fact that we are looking at that euro dollar and above 130 level is significant. also keep in mind that we did get improving factory activity. t

way or the other, we will. >> remember when we used to talk about spain? italy? >> the good old days. spain was borrowing at 7%. >> germany went to the five-year high. we could have that, too. unlike them, our economy is not in tatters. they go five-year high on tatters. audi, good car. >> yes. good car. >> meantime, shares of costco this morning up in the premarket. warehouse retailer earned 95 cents a share in the first fiscal quarter. revenue, profit margins beating forecasts helped by rising sales. those higher membership fees did hike fees a year ago november, which doesn't happen very often. the journal today says, model looks great. the business is great. the stock is just -- people want to pay a lot of money for it, jim. >> oh, yeah, costco, those are remarkable numbers. i know you did an excellent special on coastco and it seems like the execution was impressive. people want to go there. >> as gas prices come down, that helps them, given they make it a bit of a loss leader. valuation rich for your blood. >> when you go to buy a house, you see kirkland more than any other bra

. for example italy managed to auction some debt today, the longer end of the market. and there was no great move. can we have a look at that? there was no great move of the ten-year yield as a result. maybe we'll come back in a moment. let's just focus on the close out. >> the european markets are closing now. >> it is negative territory as you can see. the fiscal cliff of course plays a part in that taking some of those -- in many senses you could call it profit taking -- not in the case of spain where you see a major underperformance. >> let me say the german finance minister suggested he thought the worst of the eurozone crisis is now past. he said the government in athens knows it cannot financially over burden the rest of the eurozone countries and is acting as it should. he was optimistic on france as well despite the fact the data is indicating we'll still get a contraction in the third quarter, for most of the eurozone. germany's economic position is arguably deteriorating but still schauble there is relatively optimistic that the crisis is over. in the meantime what is also happeni

of having the lie of the year! that would be president obama sold chrysler to italy which would then move u.s. jeep production to china. chrysler denied the claim. the media said it was untrue. the public was outraged. the romney campaign spread it anyway. we're back after the alright, in 15 minutes we're going to do the young turks. i think the number one thing that viewers like about the young turks is that we're honest. they know that i'm not bs'ing them with some hidden agenda, actually supporting one party or the other. when the democrats are wrong, they know that i'm going to be the first one to call them out. they can question whether i'm right, but i think that the audience gets that this guy, to the best of his ability, is trying to look out for us. [ male announcer ] red lobster's hitting the streets to tell real people about our new 15 under $15 menu. oh my goodness! oh my gosh this looks amazing! [ male announcer ] our new maine stays! 15 entrees under $15 seafood, chicken and more! oo! the tilapia with roasted vegetables! i'm a

% but falling. it's also true of italy. there the yields are down. take a look at where we are on the ten year, 4.4% and those bonds rise in value, you see the italian banks, for example, rising in value. the stock market, it's obvious the value of their assets is gaining ground. other financials around europe, the likes of kbc, bank of ireland, a lot of questions to the degree the irish can get better terms for their bailout or deal as a result of what the greeks have been given. there is -- and carl mentioned this, one area of concern today, and that's the finance minister's meeting where the frie french and the germans seem at odds over how they're going to get banking union, the germans are saying it cannot -- the individual banks cannot all be controlled by the ecb, the french saying, yes, they should be. that's the german finance minister. they are very split. they will try to hammer out a deal again middle of next weak. we're close now to the summit, the full heads of state summit. by then they should have a banking deal. what's interesting is with the backstop of the ecb we'll buy bond

investors, not so sure. i wanted to show you the italian curve, italy and spanl wrapping up their fund-raising for the year. their auctions weren't all of that huge, but we are seeing yields fall, prices rise across the board as investors did show up. if we flip over to spain in particular, we can take a look at the three-year over here. a bid to cover ratio of 4.8%. one indication certainly of the kind of indications there are where the ecb is expected to be the most active if and when these countries have to access their bailout programs. now we're seeing prices in spain sell off a little bit. the ten-year, just under 5.4% is the level there. for the longer dated papers, investors are a little bit more wary. now, that news coming out of the euro group meeting, i wanted to show you the euro/dollar as we wrap up today's global market support. it's still down .1%, 1.3056. that would tell you that the resolution is largely priced in. now as focus moves into the start of next year, a couple of the key questions will be how much mario draghi follows ben bernan bernanke's caps, maybe even c

the cliff that is force austerity, that is firing people. look at spain when they got serious. italy. it meant a lot of firings. he says i see what we are going to do follow these countries that have fiscal responsibility a lot of people are going to be fired. don't worry, i'm going to do my best. what what are you going to do to keep people employed? >> keeping the heat on congress, came up a number of times, of course energy the press conference that followed the fed announcement but unclear what impact it will have. >> and as far as ben bernanke can do only so much he can do we all know the market's addition to the additional stimulus and the more -- increased transparency in terms of what the fed is going to target in the future, that causes the stocks to go up for maybe an hour's worth of time and then resume trading as if nothing happened. >> in the years i have been following the fed there is always a strange dichotomy, seems like the market initially gets everything wrong. but what i have always felt, in the end, we take solace, if the fed says things are getting better we ge

't get them. i'm talking about bond markets. you see how spain, italy traded. so we're kind of nervous. the street is kind of out of paper so they can't screw it up right now. oh, shoot. i forgot to say hi to my mom! hi, mom! so that's important. because she'll get really mad if i don't. so, you have -- so you have -- >> you haven't said anything bad yet. it all sounds good. >> i'll tell you bad stuff if you want to hear it. >> no, we don't want to hear it. >> bottom line, joe, there's a trillion dollars, you got more money coming in of stimulus, and i got this market next year. so i got all kinds of different markets right now. i got credit markets which we know a lot about. we're really big equity guys, too. and i got equity markets like credit markets. i got credit markets that are so -- they're not -- i wouldn't say they're in bubble territory, but they're rich. and the spreads are at pretty good levels right now. you know, and i'll tell you how rich they are. you know this country, ivory coast, cote d'ivoire, to speak french although my french accent sucks, we bought this paper, i

, italy, france and the uk. this comes one day after a federal judge denied a request by apple to ban u.s. sales of samsung smart phone models. the devices in questions are the ones that a jury back in august say illegally used apple technology. at that time apple had been awarded $1.1 billion in damages. >>> the markets, dow looks like it will open up about $68 points higher. s&p up about 10 points, the nasdaq up 22.5 points coming on some of this news that we may be getting closer on the fiscal cliff. let's check out what's going on in asia. hang seng was down off marginally. shanghai composite up marginally and the nikkei up as well. quickly in europe, you can take a look at what's going on there. the ftse up about 0.38%. cac flat, and the german dax up about 0.5. >> the white house is proposing a new deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. let's get to steve liesman with more of the details. >> you're surprised, aren't you? >> isn't it happening. >> soon as they want it done they can do it. >> you said it this morning. it's a fictitious thing. we're going to show you the movement in just a

in italy, germany is down by .9%. >> of course, futures as you saw are taking a hit on concerns that a deal will not be reached to avert that fiscal cliff. an attempt by house speaker boehner to avoid that class and pass the so-called plan b tax bill. that failed. the measure that would have kept current tax rates for those making less than $1 million a year. it never even made it to the house floor. speaker boehner is scheduled to hold a news conference about an hour from now. of course, we'll bring that to you live. >> here we are. >> here we are once again. >> there was no real plan b. there was no real possibility of this. the republicans, the vast majority signed a pledge, they will not vote for tax increase. who would think they would suddenly turn around and vote for a tax increase. they pledged not to. >> the speaker said they might. >> i don't care. >> unless it's some sort of a plan to show how he's really -- you know, you've got to negotiate harder. because look what i'm dealing with. >> these guys -- do you suddenly think they're saying, all of a sudden we're for taxes. no tax i

the aviation business of italy's avio for $4.3 billion. ge is trying to expand its participation in the jet propulsion market. they were once owned by fiat and is now controlled by a european private equity firm and research in motion reported a smaller than expected also for its latest quarter. the stock is under pressure as the company saw its first-ever drop in its subscriber rolls and said it would be changing its fee structure. that is something that brings in more than a third of the nephew. it's been seen as the one real stable piece of that business. we do have the ceo thorsten heins. he'll be joining us in just about 30 minutes to talk more about this. >> there's only ten days left now to prevent automatic tack hikes and spending cuts. joining us from washington, republican congresswoman shelly moore capito. were you privy to everything that was happening yesterday? >> i was shocked when we went into the conference at 7:45 and the speaker, after offering this serenity prayer, said merry christmas, you're going home, we're not putting the vote up, we don't have the votes. i was disa

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